An Historical Perspective: Obama versus Reagan versus Clinton

Many political scientists accept it as a token of faith that a president's hopes for reelection rest mainly with the state of the economy. Certainly most of the models that predict presidential elections incorporate economic indicators into the formula, including Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz's highly successful model. (see http://www.emory.edu/EMORY_REPORT/erarchive/2008/September/Sept8/Election.htm).
Still, when communicating this fact to undergraduates, it is helpful to have specific historical comparisons. John B. Judis's fascinating article from The New Republic a few days ago offers exactly the right mix of graphic data and historical analysis to assess the challenges facing Obama on this score. The link is:
http://www.tnr.com/article/job-one

Judis's most interesting data compares Obama to Reagan and Clinton. The arc of Reagan's popularity in his first term tracked precisely with the unemployment rate; more than a decade later, Clinton's second-term approval ratings similarly tracked the unemployment rate almost exactly. (The charts Judis offers in his piece are especially telling). Finally, Judis consider's Obama's rising disapproval rating in his first year, which appears to track -- you guessed it -- the unemployment rate.

Judis's article makes interesting reading for professors, and offers lots of fascinating historical comparisons to discuss in class....