Vulnerable Incumbents in the Senate

A few long-time US Senate incumbents are in a fight for their political lives.

One vulnerable incumbent is first-term Republican David Vitter (LA). Vitter won in 2004 with 51% of the vote, but has since been implicated in a prostitution scandal.

There are more Democrats who run the risk of losing in 2010. The most vulnerable Democrat is 30-year incumbent Chris Dodd (CT), who has consistenly run behind in the polls by double-digit numbers. Majority Leader Harry Reid is also running behind in Nevada. Short of the GOP taking over the House, the defeat of Reid would be the biggest story in the 2010 elections. Arlen Specter (PA), who won his previous five senate races as a Republican has since switched parties and is fighting a serious primary challenge.

Polls in California show that 3-term Democrat incumbent Barbara Boxer's race is now a toss up. Rounding out the list of vulnerable incumbent's are Michael Bennet (CO) who was appointed to his seat less than a year ago, and Blanche Lincoln (AR), whose support for health care reform has been unpopular in Arkansas.

When a rising star begins to fade ...

Senator Evan Bayh's roots as a popular Democrat hailing from a traditionally red state (Indiana) once earned him the keynote address at the Democratic convention in 2000. After considering a presidential run of his own back in 2004, he was one of a handful of Democrats on Barack Obama's short list to be Vice President during the summer of 2008. Apparently, the sky was the limit for Bayh's political prospects.

What a difference a year makes.

According to Chris Cillizza, who blogs on "the Fix" at Washingtonpost.com (See http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/), Bayh is no longer the darling of his party. Whereas Bayh voted 84% of the time with the Democratic majority in 2007-2008, he now ranks as the most conservative Demnocratic Senator in the 111th Congress. He has crossed party lines on the abortion funding measure, and has been an outspoken critic of several of the Obama Administration's economic policies.

Moderates don't win presidential nominations, and so Bayh must be setting his sights elsewhere....

The "Great Recession" versus "The Great Depression"

How does the current economic recession compare to the Great Depression of the 1930's? Our latest Political Perspective newsletter looks at a variety of economic indicators and compares these two time periods. The newsletter also provides ideas for teaching your American Government students about the American politics and the economy.

To read at the newsletter:

http://wadsworthmedia.com/emarketing/Fall_09/10E-PO0023/f09_ss_psych_nl_10E-PO0023OV.html

Public Opinion about Jobs Creation

Today President Obama is hosting a summit to discuss the problem of unemployment and ways to create new jobs in America. In late november, the Gallup Poll asked a national sample of Americans the question: "In your opinion, what would be the best way to create more jobs in the United States?" Here is the advice the public had to offer: 18% favor keeping manufacturing jobs in the U.S., 14% favor lowering taxes, 12% prefer giving aid to small businesses, 10% support creating more infrastructure for work, 7% want to reduce government regulation, 6% favor creating more green jobs, and 4% say -- that's right -- they would provide more stimulus funding.

The Report Card is Coming Soon ...

Democrats and Republicans in Washington D.C. today don't agree on much, but this much they do agree on: whether President Obama's first year in office will ultimately be judged successful probably depends on what he accomplishes in the next three-and-a-half weeks.

For a more pro-Obama spin on the President's first year, read Jacob Weisberg's account at:

http://www.slate.com/id/2236708/

Sen. Blanche Lincoln: A Profile in Courage?

Majority Leader Harry Reid is pushing for the first key vote on heath care reform in the Senate on Saturday. Reid needs 60 votes on the measure to avoid a GOP filibuster. All 40 Republicans have said they will oppose the bill; and so Reid needs all of the remaining 60 votes.

It appears that four of the Senators that Democrats need are waivering: Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Democrat Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, and Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

The health care package includes $850 in spending to expand Medicaid to cover 31 million who are now uninsured. The bill also includes a "public option" that allows states to opt out. On abortion, the bill separates federal funding from private premiums, with the latter funding abortion coverage.

Senator Nelson wants stronger language separating abortion funding from public coverage. Lieberman opposes the public option. While both of these senators indicate that they may oppose future versions of the bill based on these provisions, they also seem to indicate they will vote with Reid on Saturday.

The real wildcards are Lincoln and Landrieu. Politico.com reports that Landrieu will make her decision sometime on Friday. Lincoln, who stands for re-election next year in a state where polls show opposition to Obama's heath plan, is probably the biggest wildcard. A negative vote from Lincoln or any one of the other 3 senators would set back the Democrats' efforts to pass heath care reform significantly.

In voting against the removal of President Andrew Johnson in 1868, Republican Senator Edmund G. Ross took a step that he knew would cost him re-election ... and it did. John Kennedy called this vote a "profile in courage."

Senator Blanche Lincoln has a potentially career-altering decision to make tomorrow: to move President Obama and the Democrat Health Care Reform one step closer to reality, or to save her political career? Will her vote be another profile in courage?

Rating Obama on the Issues

The ABC News/Washington Post Poll released it's latest yesterday on President Obama's performance. Despite a controversial health care bill, a double-digit unemployment rate, a soaring deficit, and criticism for the amount of time it is taking to formulate a plan for Afghanistan, the President's overall approval rating remains at 56%.

Here is the breakdown on the approval rating in specific areas:

Percent who “approve” of his job performance:

“overall” 56%
“international affairs” 60%
“terrorism” 53%
“the economy” 51%
“health care” 47%
“Afghanistan” 46%
“the budget deficit” 42%

The specific ratings indicate that Americans are clearly distinguishing between different aspects of Obama's performance. However, it appears that on the more general items Obama gets better grades than on the specifics. For example, on "international affairs" he gets a 60% approval rating while on "Afghanistan" he gets a 46%.

Similarly, on the "economy" he receives a 51% rating, but on the "budget deficit" he gets a 42%.

This raises an interesting question: Is the higher 56% overall rating derived more from his personal "likability," or more from how Americans think he is performing on specific issues?