Last Friday's posting (see below) discussed the GOP's prospects for winning a majority of seats in the 2010 House midterm elections. Today we take a look at the Senate.
Currently there are 60 seantors who align with the Democratic caucus and 40 with the Republican caucus. The GOP would need to keep all of its current seats and win back 11 from the Dems to achieve a majority (a mere 10-seat flip would produce a tie, with the tie-breaker being Democrat VP Joe Biden).
38 of the Senate's 100 seats will be contested in 2010. 19 of the 38 are currently GOP seats and 19 are Democratic seats. According to congressional election analyst Charlie Cook (www.cookpolitical.com) 12 of the 19 Democrat-held seats are solidly Democrat, and 11 of the GOP seats are not competitive. Barring a number of unexpected vacancies or a serious shift in the political winds, it is very unlikely that the Senate will find itself under Republican control as a result of the 2010 midterm elections.
Cook contends that the best prospects for the GOP are in Nevada (where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is vulnerable), Connecticut (where 30 year incumbant Senator Chris Dodd is in trouble), and Illinois (where President Obama's former senate seat, occupied by interim Senator Burris, has been the point of controversy). Somewhat safer, but still vulnerable, are the Democrat seats held by Senators Boxer (CA), Specter (PA), Bennet (CO), and Lincoln (AR).
If the Republicans are to achieve divided government in the short term, they will need to focus their efforts on the House races rather than on the Senate.
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