If history is a guide, Republicans will gain seats in next year's midterm congressional elections.
Let's first take a look at the prospects for the House races (Next Monday we'll look at the Senate). 1978 and 1994 were the last two House midterm elections similar to 2010. In 1978, Jimmy Carter was a first term Democratic incumbent, and his party held strong majorities in both houses. The Republicans won back 15 House seats that year (but the Democrats still held a whopping 277-158 majority).
In 1994, Bill Clinton was a first term Democrat, and his party held a 256-176 majority in the House. Following a bruising loss in the battle to pass health insurance reform and the GOP's nationalized "Contract with America" campaign, the Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994, giving the GOP a majority for the first time in 40 years.
The current partisan distribution of the House is 256-D, 177-R. The GOP needs a net 40-seat shift in the 2010 midterm elections to gain a majority.
Congressional election analyst Charlie Cook (see www.cookpolitical.com) identifies 106 (of the 435) congressional districts that might possibly experience a shift in partisan control. 71 of these CDs are currently held by Democrats and 35 by Republicans. 48 of the 71 Democrat seats are in districts that Bush won in 2004 and McCain won in 2008, indicating that the GOP potentially can turn enough seats to win back the House -- assuming that they can hold onto most of their 35 competitive seats.
What are the primary factors that will influence the magnitude of GOP gains in 2010? First is the state of the economy particularly as reflected in the unemployment rate; second is how well-organized the GOP is in running a coherent national campaign; and third is the success or failure of the Democrats in passing health insurance reform this year.
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