The Report Card is Coming Soon ...

Democrats and Republicans in Washington D.C. today don't agree on much, but this much they do agree on: whether President Obama's first year in office will ultimately be judged successful probably depends on what he accomplishes in the next three-and-a-half weeks.

For a more pro-Obama spin on the President's first year, read Jacob Weisberg's account at:

http://www.slate.com/id/2236708/

Sen. Blanche Lincoln: A Profile in Courage?

Majority Leader Harry Reid is pushing for the first key vote on heath care reform in the Senate on Saturday. Reid needs 60 votes on the measure to avoid a GOP filibuster. All 40 Republicans have said they will oppose the bill; and so Reid needs all of the remaining 60 votes.

It appears that four of the Senators that Democrats need are waivering: Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Democrat Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, and Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

The health care package includes $850 in spending to expand Medicaid to cover 31 million who are now uninsured. The bill also includes a "public option" that allows states to opt out. On abortion, the bill separates federal funding from private premiums, with the latter funding abortion coverage.

Senator Nelson wants stronger language separating abortion funding from public coverage. Lieberman opposes the public option. While both of these senators indicate that they may oppose future versions of the bill based on these provisions, they also seem to indicate they will vote with Reid on Saturday.

The real wildcards are Lincoln and Landrieu. Politico.com reports that Landrieu will make her decision sometime on Friday. Lincoln, who stands for re-election next year in a state where polls show opposition to Obama's heath plan, is probably the biggest wildcard. A negative vote from Lincoln or any one of the other 3 senators would set back the Democrats' efforts to pass heath care reform significantly.

In voting against the removal of President Andrew Johnson in 1868, Republican Senator Edmund G. Ross took a step that he knew would cost him re-election ... and it did. John Kennedy called this vote a "profile in courage."

Senator Blanche Lincoln has a potentially career-altering decision to make tomorrow: to move President Obama and the Democrat Health Care Reform one step closer to reality, or to save her political career? Will her vote be another profile in courage?

Rating Obama on the Issues

The ABC News/Washington Post Poll released it's latest yesterday on President Obama's performance. Despite a controversial health care bill, a double-digit unemployment rate, a soaring deficit, and criticism for the amount of time it is taking to formulate a plan for Afghanistan, the President's overall approval rating remains at 56%.

Here is the breakdown on the approval rating in specific areas:

Percent who “approve” of his job performance:

“overall” 56%
“international affairs” 60%
“terrorism” 53%
“the economy” 51%
“health care” 47%
“Afghanistan” 46%
“the budget deficit” 42%

The specific ratings indicate that Americans are clearly distinguishing between different aspects of Obama's performance. However, it appears that on the more general items Obama gets better grades than on the specifics. For example, on "international affairs" he gets a 60% approval rating while on "Afghanistan" he gets a 46%.

Similarly, on the "economy" he receives a 51% rating, but on the "budget deficit" he gets a 42%.

This raises an interesting question: Is the higher 56% overall rating derived more from his personal "likability," or more from how Americans think he is performing on specific issues?

Anything is possible ...

With her book tour about to launch, my students have been asking: Does Sarah Palin have any chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?

Of course it is possible ..... (See http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/11/16/walter/)

As Walter Shapiro so aptly points out, beware the winner-take-all Republican primaries. Did anybody think back in 2005 that a 71-year old John McCain -- defeated handily in his race for the nomination in 2000 -- would sweep every delegate in the party's early February contests on route to an easy nomination victory in 2008?

States in Fiscal Distress

The economic recession has taken a large toll on jobs, savings, businesses, and the federal deficit. Severe fiscal problems in the states are another by-product of difficult economic times.

Declines in state revenue have produced over $250 billion in budget deficits across the states. A new report by the Pew Center on the States (see www.pewcenteronthestates.org) finds that (1) many states will continue to face deficits through 2012; (2) financial pressure on states is placing further burdens on fiscally strapped municipalities; and (3) in the current fiscal year alone, states have increased taxes by $24 billion and cut services by $54 billion.

The study identifies the 10 states that are fiscally most vulnerable: Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

Have your students use the Pew Center web site to see where their state stacks up. The rich data profile of the states provides plenty of information for a good class discussion of both federalism and state governments.

The Ultimate Senate Wildcard

Am I the only one fascinated by the evolution of Lindsey Graham as a Senator and political figure? When he led the successful fight to impeach President Clinton in 1998, and then assumed Strom Thurmond's seat in the Senate six years later, I had pegged him as a fire-breathing conservative in the tradition of Jesse Helms and his fellow South Carolina Senator, Jim DeMint. But since becoming a Senator he has gone against the conservative grain on several occasions: (1) As a member of the "Gang of 14", he stymied Republican leaders' use of the so-called nuclear option; (2) his consistent support of comprehensive immigration reform has earned him the ire of conservative activists; and (3) he voted in favor of Sonia Sotomayor's appointment to the Supreme Court.

If the Senate and the House cannot reconcile their health care bills, Graham may once again be dragged in as a deal maker. Though a consistent opponent of the Democratic House version, Graham is one of seven Senate Republicans who is on record as supporting a universal health care system (albeit one that would end the tax exemption on employer-provided health care benefits). Graham may once again be in a position to surprise his colleagues ....

"There's no need to fear ..."

It looks like President Obama is calling in the big guns to wrestle with Democrat Senators sitting on the proverbial heath care fence:

See: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2009/Nov/10/bill_clinton_meets_with_senate_dems_on_health_care.html

A case of too little, too late?

Gay Marriage and the Vote

The struggle for gay marriage rights suffered yet another rejection from voters in 2009, this time in the state of Maine. Last year California voters supported a ban on gay marriage.

Along with Maine and California, eight additional states have voted to ban either gay marriage or civil unions, and another three states have held referenda votes supporting the definition of marriage as a union between a man and a woman.

To date, every state referendum on the gay rights issue has been defeated. These defeats have led some to suggest that the gay rights issue mobilizes social conservatives to turn out, and thus can affect other election outcomes on the ballot more favorably for Republicans.

What role will this issue play in the 2010 mid-term elections? Is it “just the economy, stupid,” or will other issues such as gay rights play an even more significant role in 2010?

Watch the turnout ...

For all the talk about how today's election in New Jersey offers a referendum on the Democrats in general and President Obama in particular, the final outcome will primarily be determined by -- you guessed it --turnout. Barack Obama's election was made possible by an electorate made up of 27 percent minority voters. Jon Corzine would coast to reelection if similar numbers turned out today; unfortunately for him, the minority turnout in New Jersey won't even come close to that percentage. As Politico.com points out:

"Both campaigns and independent observers expect turnout statewide to be about 48 percent to 49 percent. That means at or just above 2.3 million votes. If it’s less than that, Corzine could be in trouble as it will most likely mean unhappy, or just plain uninterested, Democrats are staying home. “If turnout dips below 47 percent, it’s minorities not showing up,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. To win, Corzine also needs to push the percentage of the electorate that is made up of minority groups above 20 percent."

The three most important factors in any election? Turnout, turnout and turnout.

(For the whole article, see http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29070.html )

All Eyes on New Jersey

Three major elections will occur tomorrow: the Virginia gubernatorial, the New Jersey gubernatorial, and the New York City mayoral races. These are typically the big races a year following a presidential election.

The polls consistently show that New York City Mayor Bloomberg will easily be re-elected to a third term. The polls also show a widening gap -- now about 12 points -- favoring Republican Robert McConnell over Democrat Creigh Deeds.

The nail-biter appears to be in New Jersey. Democrat incumbant Jon Corzine is facing a serious challenge from Republican Chris Christie. Corzine has outspent Christie by a factor of 3 to 1 ($24M to $8M), and that margin seems to have brought Corzine back into the race. Pollster.com,(http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php), a terrific site that summarizes poll
data, calculates that from the average of all recent polls, the race is tied at 41.8% to 41.8%.

Complicating the dynamics of the NJ race is the presence of Independent candidate Chris Daggett, a former Republican, who is polling about 10% of the vote right now.

Looks like the 8% of voters who are undecided will be deciding the fate of who will occupy the governor's mansion for the next four years ....