Watch the turnout ...

For all the talk about how today's election in New Jersey offers a referendum on the Democrats in general and President Obama in particular, the final outcome will primarily be determined by -- you guessed it --turnout. Barack Obama's election was made possible by an electorate made up of 27 percent minority voters. Jon Corzine would coast to reelection if similar numbers turned out today; unfortunately for him, the minority turnout in New Jersey won't even come close to that percentage. As Politico.com points out:

"Both campaigns and independent observers expect turnout statewide to be about 48 percent to 49 percent. That means at or just above 2.3 million votes. If it’s less than that, Corzine could be in trouble as it will most likely mean unhappy, or just plain uninterested, Democrats are staying home. “If turnout dips below 47 percent, it’s minorities not showing up,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. To win, Corzine also needs to push the percentage of the electorate that is made up of minority groups above 20 percent."

The three most important factors in any election? Turnout, turnout and turnout.

(For the whole article, see http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29070.html )